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Asset Inflation: The Real AI with Mike Wilson

RiskReversal Pod

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Valuation Forecast Scenarios

The speaker mentions two potential scenarios for valuation forecasts: either the rubber will hit the road or valuations need to decrease. They had a base case target of $5500 and mentioned the possibility of trading through $6000 in a late 90s scenario. The speaker highlighted that the equity risk premium has grown more than earnings, leading to a situation where multiples keep increasing and the risk premium turns negative.

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