Avoid Absolute Certainty in Predictions and Forecasts

Absolute certainty in predictions and forecasts can be misleading due to the complexity and unpredictability of future events. Even highly credible experts can be mistaken in their forecasts, as demonstrated by the example of a prediction regarding Iran's nuclear capability. Macroforecasting is inherently challenging due to the multitude of variables and random influences at play. Therefore, it is advisable for investors and decision-makers to avoid using definitive terms such as will, won't, has to, can't, always, and never when considering future scenarios.