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Reserves Reveal Market Dynamics
The analysis of reserves, particularly those held by the Federal Reserve, is crucial for understanding market movements. Although the Federal Reserve's total balance sheet has decreased to its lowest level since 2020, examining the specific US reserve balances shows a peak in April after a prior rise in 2022, followed by a subsequent decline. Global reserves at other central banks exhibit similar patterns, correlating closely with near-term market dynamics, such as asset classes including credit, emerging markets, and Bitcoin. While equities appear to exhibit some decoupling from these trends, the overall movement in reserves remains a significant indicator of market behavior.