Believing Your Own Bullshit

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The complexity of economic systems and stock markets makes it impossible to have definitive answers, leading to humility being a superpower in such situations. Highly intelligent individuals tend to create elaborate explanations based on their mental capacity, which can lead to overconfidence. Professional money managers, often very intelligent individuals, may produce poor returns because they believe in their elaborate models rather than accepting the uncertainty of the markets. This highlights the fine line between intellectual rigor and falling into the trap of believing one's own elaborate explanations.

Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” That might be true for some things – health, happiness, golden retrievers, maybe.

But in so many cases the thing that helps you can be taken to a dangerous level. And since it’s a “good thing,” not an obvious threat, its danger creeps into your life unnoticed.

Take intelligence.

How could someone possibly be too intelligent? How do you get to a point where you realize you could have been more successful if you had been a little dumber?

Let me share three reasons why.

And if you're looking for another podcast to listen to, check out The Rundown by my friends at Public.com. It's a quick five-minute listen that gets you all caught up on the latest in the stock market, the economy, and in crypto. Hope you enjoy it.