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Against Bayesianism — David Deutsch

The Joe Walker Podcast

NOTE

The Probability Theory Wasn't Misunderstood

Scientific researchers like Kepler and Galileo faced challenges within the system, leading to a halt in scientific research in Southern Europe but continued in Northern Europe through figures like Leibnitz, Newton, and Descartes. Despite facing authority issues, these thinkers had the freedom to develop fundamental ideas. The delay in inventing probability theory can be explained by the initial understanding of the theory as a method for making a profit in games, rather than the predictive tool it is today. The early users of probability theory focused on its application in games involving random processes, rather than using it for broader predictions like discovering new continents.

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