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"Did the stock market top in March?" asked and answered by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe (DataTrek Research)
The Compound and Friends
Understanding Energy Shocks and Stock Market Trends
Energy shocks have two components - price and access. While price shocks can lead to recessions, the physical shortage of energy, like during the Iranian Revolution in '79, can exacerbate the impact. In terms of stock market trends, historically, the S&P peaks in Q4 during positive years and in January during negative years. The likelihood of the stock market peaking either in January or Q4 is 82%, which is quite noteworthy.
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