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Brian Klaas | How To Think About An Unlimited Future Of Possibilities - Flukes, Chance, Randomness & Nassim Taleb
Curious Worldview
The Fallacy of Predictability and the Challenge of Causality
The core insight is about the fallacy of predictability, arguing that pretending to predict the future based on past experience is flawed. The speaker relates this to the Arab Spring, highlighting how theories about the stability of Middle Eastern dictatorships were proven wrong. The insight emphasizes the challenge of distinguishing whether theories were wrong or if the world has changed, making it functionally impossible to tell the difference in social relationships.
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