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The Next Stage of the Credit Cycle with Oaktree’s Poli

Odd Lots

Evolution of the Credit Market: Quality and Stability Amidst Change

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The credit market has undergone significant shifts in quality and composition due to various economic events, particularly COVID-19. Pre-pandemic, many companies represented in high-yield indices faced defaults, effectively cleansing the market of weaker entities. This resulted in a landscape characterized by higher quality credits today compared to previous years. As poor performers exited the indices, remaining companies improved overall credit profiles. The prevalence of lower-rated credits indicates inherent risks, yet the current high-yield market shows more stability, with leverage levels remaining steady or even decreasing slightly. Despite concerns like rising student debt and auto payment delinquencies, the labor market remains resilient, supporting borrowers' fundamentals. Overall, the current credit market reflects a healthier outlook, shaped by a combination of market corrections and ongoing economic performance.

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