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At The Money: Humans Are Not Built For Investing
Masters in Business
Beware the Overconfidence Trap
Experts often struggle with accurate forecasting due to inherent overconfidence, particularly among those who are more renowned. Research by Philip Tetlock reveals that fame in the prediction field often stems from a rare, exceptional foresight—such as a black swan event. Once successful, experts tend to persist with similar predictions despite the general tendency for outcomes to revert to average. This tendency highlights a cognitive bias deeply ingrained in our decision-making processes, emphasizing the need to be cautious in our reliance on celebrated prognosticators.
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