Daphne Koller on drug discovery and AI
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Navigating the Complex Landscape of Drug Discovery
The drug discovery process has distinct stages that significantly impact overall success and cost. It begins with a biological insight, leading to a therapeutic hypothesis about modulating a specific target for a patient population. This initial phase is crucial, as most failures in clinical development stem from incorrect hypotheses or inadequate biological understanding, rather than just issues arising in clinical trials. The pathway continues with the identification of the appropriate drug substance to enact the desired intervention, culminating in clinical trials where the drug is tested in patients. However, the clinical development stage is the most expensive and where most failures occur, but this is often a reflection of earlier missteps. The high costs of successful programs—averaging over $2.6 billion—are inflated by the need to account for the numerous failed attempts that precede any regulatory success. Overall, the complexity and costliness of drug discovery underline the importance of sound initial hypotheses and a thorough understanding of biology to enhance the likelihood of success.
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