Doing a Good Job Assessing Probability?

There are three kinds of biases we all tend to have that can get in the way of us doing a good job assessing probability. The first of these is called availability bias. It's that tendency to overestimate the frequency of the kinds of events that are going to be easily recalled. Danny carniman would tell us to stop a moment and think more deliberately about these risks. Slow, deliberate thinking has made me much more afraid of mosquitoes than i am of sharks or planes. now i know to be careful about my own over confidence.