Failure to accurately calculate the value of treasuries and appropriate contracts for hedging creates significant volatility in long-term interest rates. When interest rates decline, the ideal response is to purchase additional treasuries, while rising rates necessitate selling them. This volatility stems from a substantial amount of refinancable mortgage debt, impacting all borrowing costs, as the yield on treasury bonds serves as a central benchmark. The interconnectedness of housing market structures in the U.S. versus healthcare systems in other nations highlights that U.S. decisions in housing significantly affect the pricing of virtually all global assets.
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch.
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Full transcript here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/writing-history-byrne-hobart/
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Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
Referenced:
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Twitter:
@patio11
@byrnehobart
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:25) The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product
(04:46) Young households are the socially optimal holders of equities risk
(10:19) The structure of private equity returns
(14:18) Sponsor: Check
(15:32) Meta-analysis of the finance newsletter space
(19:54) Byrne’s aspirations for The Diff
(25:01) The origins of names
(27:19) The epistemics of a hedge fund
(34:26) Venture capital vs hedge funds
(38:13) Understanding scrapers
(41:20) How to learn about an industry from scratch
(45:37) The business of online travel agencies
(49:21) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.