#53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
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Diverge from the Herd for Above Average Results
To achieve above average results, one must diverge from the thinking of the herd, as following the same path as everyone else cannot lead to exceptional outcomes. The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that the market efficiently incorporates available information, making it challenging to outperform. However, for success, second-level thinking is essential, requiring individuals to think differently from the crowd, even though the consensus opinion is often considered close to the truth.
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