The Folly of Certainty

Certainty can be catastrophic when combined with being wrong, as doubt is preferable to absurd certainty, especially in fields influenced by factors like psychological fluctuations, irrationality, and randomness like politics, economics, and investing. The unpredictability of these fields makes prediction unreliable. In the example of the tennis tournament, bettors were overly certain that Babar Kretzikova wouldn't win, underestimating her potential. This exemplifies the folly of certainty, which is further emphasized by the unpredictability of events like the recent attempt on Donald Trump's life, showing that making predictions is often a losing game.