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Debt, Demographics & Deflation Ahead | Raoul Pal

The Macro Trading Floor

NOTE

Bond Yields Should Be a Relatively Good Trade

This is the most decoupled it's been from the business cycle in history, regardless of what inflation is. So I think that if we're going to see the rate of change come plus the declining growth, plus the decline in inflation, then bond yields should be a relatively good trade. terminal rate expectations are about 5%. The Fed are probably not going to go much above that. Probably make it clear today. You can buy Fed funds pretty much at the terminal rate.

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