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How big is the lane to primary Biden? P(change)?
Biden leads Trump by 6 percentage points in hypothetical match-up, 44% to 38%. So that says to me, and this is how I read a lot of polls at this stage in the primary campaign. The number between them doesn't really matter too much, and everything doesn't matter. What matters is lanes. You've just established that there is a lane of people who are ex who are willing to vote for Joe Biden.