Contingency in evolutionary biology refers to how very small changes can lead to profound effects, such as the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs and paved the way for the rise of mammals. On the other hand, convergence in evolution is about stable patterns emerging under pressures, like the similar evolution of octopus and human eyes due to the limited ways vision can work. This framework extends to human social change, where small events can significantly alter history. Contingency is exemplified by events like hitting the snooze button and facing a life-altering car accident, while convergence reflects events that do not significantly impact the course of life. This concept applies both to individual lives and societal changes.
How did a husband-and-wife vacation end up saving a city from the atomic bomb while destroying another? And how did a century-old murder of one family bring another into existence? Easily, explains political scientist Brian Klaas of University College London, who points out that history is replete with chance events that profoundly shaped both society and individual lives. Listen as Klaas discusses his book Fluke with EconTalk's Russ Roberts. Klaas argues that recognizing the randomness of everyday life and history can lead to a newfound appreciation for the meaning of every decision, and to a focus on joyful experimentation instead of relentless optimization.