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The Tech Unwind

The Compound and Friends

Market Signals Reflect Economic Trends

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The decline of the 10-year yield below 4% indicates market expectations of lower interest rates, corroborated by the Federal Reserve's indications. Continuous negative surprises in economic data suggest a weakening economy, which influences the bond market. The 10-year yield is primarily determined by market forces, while the short end is influenced by Fed policy, highlighting the importance of these dynamics in assessing economic conditions.

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