Daniel Kahneman on Making Intelligent Decisions in a Chaotic World - Part 2
Intelligence Squared
Expertise Assessment and Noise Reduction
Expertise evaluation is complex, especially in fields where judgments are unverifiable such as long-term forecasts. In such cases, respect experts emerge, being revered for qualities like self-confidence and eloquence, rather than performance quality. This highlights the distinction between respected individuals and those with proven performance. Fields like chess, weather forecasting, and investing provide objective benchmarks for assessing expertise, where accuracy over time determines the distinction between excellent and poor professionals.
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