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“We’re In Uncharted Territory” | Warren Pies on Treasury Issuance, Housing Market, Oil, And Recession Risk
Forward Guidance
Recession More Probable Than Usual in 2024, Leading Indicator: Housing Market
The housing market plays a critical role in predicting a recession in the US economy, historically linked to declines in residential construction payrolls. A projected 8% to 10% decline in these payrolls typically precedes a recession. Current data indicates a decreasing trend in housing construction payrolls since their peak in January. Although recent payroll data showed some positive developments, ongoing monitoring is essential. The economy's resilience can be attributed to unprecedented fiscal policies and low unemployment rates, maintaining market strength. However, indicators suggest that factors supporting the housing market, like low mortgage rates, may lose effectiveness as interest rates rise. This analysis leads to a prediction that the recession might be most probable in Q2 of 2024, deviating from prior forecasts. The uncertain economic landscape requires a comprehensive framework considering the housing market's dynamics and job trends for accurate recession predictions.
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