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Episode 90: Bayesianism for Critical Rationalists!?
The Theory of Anything
Specificity Enhances Predictive Power
Bayesianism emphasizes the value of specificity in predictive theories. A theory that narrows its predictions to a focused range will maintain a higher prior probability and perform better than those that spread predictions broadly across outcomes. The concept of 'none of the above' highlights that offering no distinct prediction equates to reducing predictive strength, as such theories lack specificity and therefore possess an infinitesimal prior for any outcome. In essence, as long as the evidence aligns with a specific theory, it is more likely to succeed compared to vague or unfocused alternatives.
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