Episode 90: Bayesianism for Critical Rationalists!?
The Theory of Anything
Extraordinary Claims Demand Rigorous Scrutiny
When evaluating the likelihood of an extraordinary claim, such as the outcome of rolling a die that exceeds its maximum value, one must shift their perspective on probability. Initially, the naive interpretation may suggest a posterior probability of zero for a six-sided die producing a number like 13. However, extraordinary claims call for extraordinary evidence, and this necessitates consideration of potential errors and underlying probabilities. Even if the likelihood of an error is extremely low, such as one in a million, it becomes significant when the certainty in a hypothesis is high. Thus, as confidence grows in any theory, so too must the diligence in assessing uncertainties in results, illustrating the importance of accountability in experimental claims.
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