Macro Outlook and Key Factors

The macro environment shows increased uncertainty due to a more unpredictable US administration.
Potential disruptions in energy policy, particularly geopolitical actions involving Iran or Venezuela, warrant attention.
Sanctions and tariffs remain key factors to watch for their potential impact on asset prices.
While a ceasefire in Ukraine would be significant, its impact on asset prices is likely already priced in.
The current economy presents a two-tiered system, with stress in lower income brackets but good performance in higher ones.
Several yellow and orange flags exist, primarily concerning tariffs and potential liquidity disruptions.

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