Historical events that have never happened before occur frequently and have the most significant impact on shaping the future in various fields, such as business and investing. Key economic events like the Great Depression, World War II, interest rate collapses, and globalization are examples of events that were unprecedented until they occurred and transformed the world. Predictions of such events could be dismissed based on their historical uniqueness. History is essentially a study of change and serves as a guide to the future, though the belief that gathering data and reading history books can provide a clear map to the future is misleading.
My deepest forecasting belief is that you can better understand the future if you focus on the behaviors that never change instead of the events that might.
And those behaviors have a common denominator: They follow the path of least resistance of people trying to simplify a complex world into a few stories that make sense and make them feel good about themselves.
Simple stories, feel-good stories. Those are some of history’s most seductive beliefs, and they always will be.
Here are a few that stick out.