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It Turns Out the Fed Doesn’t Matter

The Compound and Friends

NOTE

Potential Factors Impacting the Labor Market

The labor market may need an exogenous shock to weaken, but it's unlikely that interest rates will cause companies to start laying off employees at this point. Certain companies are facing pressure and the economy's characteristics suggest it may be vulnerable. The recent increase in interest rates is hurting small businesses and causing problems in commercial real estate. However, consumer spending, which makes up 68% of the economy, remains strong. It's uncertain when consumers will stop spending.

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