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How to have a positive impact with your career (with Benjamin Hilton)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Pitfalls of Using Mathematical Factors for Long-Term Estimation
Relying on mathematical factors for long-term estimates can lead to misleading conclusions due to the complexities of variables involved. Attempting to quantify vague concepts results in impractical calculations, as these factors often represent extreme numbers that are difficult to estimate accurately. Simplified calculations, like projecting the future population based on optimistic scenarios, can obscure vital uncertainties and nuances, such as the potential for current decisions to be reversed over time. A more nuanced approach is necessary, incorporating a discount for long-term impact and acknowledging the challenges of influencing future generations. By shifting the focus from simplistic multiplicative factors to realistic assessments of influence over time, one can derive more meaningful insights and comparisons related to long-term issues.
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