The Arrival Fallacy: Mispredicting Happiness

Humans tend to mispredict what will make them happy by believing that a specific future event, like getting a promotion, having a family, or finding a partner, will bring everlasting happiness. This mindset, known as the arrival fallacy or happily ever after fallacy, leads individuals to put excessive hopes on that one event, setting themselves up for disappointment as research suggests that the event may not bring the expected level of joy. For instance, a high school student applying to Yale may overestimate the euphoria of getting accepted, highlighting how individuals often overpredict the emotional impact of achieving a future goal.

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