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Will It End Badly?
The Compound and Friends
Decile Two Volatility and S&P 500 Returns
Decile two volatility levels, where the VIX is around 11 or 12, historically yield positive and robust returns in the S&P 500 index over the following 12 months. Contrary to common fears of low volatility signaling a market downturn, empirical data supports the notion that low VIX levels do not necessarily indicate upcoming negative returns. Despite concerns of complacency or a potential spike in volatility, statistics indicate that investing during such low volatility periods has led to satisfactory returns over time, challenging the common perception of associating low VIX levels with market risks.
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