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The Tech Unwind

The Compound and Friends

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Anticipate, Don't React: Understanding Economic Signals

The onset of a recession is not arbitrary; it requires specific triggers such as an exogenous event or actions by the Federal Reserve. Prolonged high-interest rates have notably impacted regional banks and commercial real estate. However, the timing of Fed rate cuts is unlikely to prevent a recession if the factors leading to it are already in place. While adopting a bearish outlook may seem prudent due to overwhelming negative data, historical trends indicate that markets generally rise 77% of the time, emphasizing the importance of tolerating volatility as an inherent aspect of investing.

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