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Hyun Song Shin on How Big the Yen Carry Trade Really Is

Odd Lots

NOTE

Swaps: Balance Sheet Strategies in Currency Markets

Swaps are symmetric transactions where one currency is exchanged for another, but market dynamics can create a lead party in such transactions based on varying financial conditions. For example, a euro-area insurance company may need to swap euros for dollars to invest in dollar-denominated assets, addressing a currency mismatch on its balance sheet. This swap functions similarly to borrowing dollars economically but is treated differently in accounting. Typically, it is costlier to borrow dollars through swaps than in the dollar money market due to an additional premium for dollar access. In times of financial stress, the FX swap basis tends to spike, prompting central bank intervention. Interestingly, during a recent financial event, the dollar-yen FX swap basis showed minimal movement, indicating that liquidity was still provided despite volatility, diverging from typical patterns seen in previous crises. This suggests that the driving transactions were more focused on repaying yen rather than scrambling for dollars, highlighting the complexities within currency markets.

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