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Holiday Reads: Naomi Klein, Mehdi Hasan and Mustafa Suleyman
Intelligence Squared
The Exponential Growth of Compute Power in AI Models and its Implications
The compute power used for cutting edge AI models has grown by 10 times every year for the last decade, and this trend is unprecedented in technology history. Over the next five years, it is projected to add around 1000 times the current compute capability. The implications of this exponential growth are significant, as the distance between AI models is not incremental but exponential, with GBT4 having 100 times more compute power than GBT2. This increasing compute capacity will enable AI to perfect speech, video, image, and language generation, and progress towards planning across multiple time horizons. This means that AI will be able to autonomously research, design, negotiate, manufacture, market, and sell new products. Despite the lack of full autonomy, this will considerably enhance the efficiency of innovation and management processes. This massive acceleration in technological capabilities has the potential to aid in solving global challenges such as climate change and enhancing healthcare. The historical pattern of technological advancements leading to increased productivity and efficiency also aligns with the trajectory of AI's impact on intelligence.
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