Will You Make Your Bets?

There are long-term things you can bet on. The age distribution of the population is pretty much fixed. For a lot of the world, there's a coming imbalance that there's going to be too many old people and non-muff young people. If we don't get birth rates, if in Germany they've already destroyed half a million housing units because there's nobody to live in them,. And so these kind of things we can forecast, but the social and technical stuff, oh that's much harder. Nobody forecasts Instagram. Nobody forecasts social media as an addictive kind of thing out there. Yet that's what happened. Strategy is not about forecasting. It's about dealing with problems