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Discussion on Floating Rate Loans, Potential Stress, and Uncertainties in the System
The stress on floating rate loans has been building for over a year, potentially leading to rate pressure and possible liquidity issues for sponsors. Uncertainties arise from the difficulty in determining if reported debt service coverage numbers are based on capped or uncapped rates. The young nature of series CELO products adds to the uncertainty as they have not yet undergone a full cycle. Delinquency rates in series CELO are currently higher than in other sectors, indicating existing problems in the system. Despite the challenges, mechanisms in place allow issuers to manage and work out loans outside the system. While headlines may suggest significant issues, the actual impact may be limited due to the small sample size and relative performance compared to the broader multi-family market. Overall, the situation is further along than perceived optimistically, highlighting the need for continued monitoring and discussions on the topic.