The Memo by Howard Marks cover image

The Folly of Certainty

The Memo by Howard Marks

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The Wisdom of John Kenneth Galbraith: two kinds of people

Correct forecasts cannot be solely produced by intelligence, education, data, and analytical abilities. Wisdom from John Kenneth Galbraith emphasizes the existence of two kinds of people: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know. Galbraith highlights two factors contributing to financial euphoria and collapse - the short financial memory and the mistaken connection between money and intelligence. The latter leads to the false assumption that successful investors possess superior intellect applicable to all fields when, in reality, their success may be due to luck or favorable circumstances rather than extraordinary abilities.

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