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Understanding the Planning Fallacy - How to Potentially Escape It
The planning fallacy reveals a systemic underestimation of time and resources required to complete tasks, leading to realizations that projects often take three times longer and cost twice as much as anticipated. Awareness of this cognitive bias doesn't suffice to eliminate its effects, as even experts tasked with educating others about it have fallen prey to underestimating the time needed for their curriculum development. A potential strategy to mitigate the impact of the planning fallacy includes setting deliberately ambitious goals, enabling a 'shoot for the stars' mentality that acknowledges potential failure yet aims for significant achievement. Additionally, creating a scenario where success is imperative—often described as 'burning the boats'—can drive remarkable performances under pressure. Examples of individuals succeeding in high-stakes situations suggest that extraordinary outcomes are frequently born from being cornered, with no alternative options left available.