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Michael Pettis: China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying
Forward Guidance
The Economic Cycle of Rapid Growth and Rising Debt
The economic cycle in many countries typically involves rapid and healthy growth in the 1950s and 60s, leading to the classification of countries like Brazil as economic miracles. This growth phase is followed by a period where debt increases rapidly due to investments in productivity. However, a critical point is reached around 2006-2007 when debt starts growing faster than GDP, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and a rapid increase in the debt to GDP ratio.
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