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The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish cover image

#48 Adam Robinson: Winning at the Great Game (Part 2)

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

NOTE

Information Overload Can Lead to Overconfidence

Providing more information does not necessarily improve accuracy in predictions; instead, it can lead to increased overconfidence among decision-makers. In a betting scenario, confidence grew significantly despite the consistency in accuracy, illustrating that additional data may reinforce existing biases rather than enhance predictive capability. Thus, simplifying analysis to a few critical variables can be more effective, as seen in investment strategies that focus on key market indicators.

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