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Mike Green & Bob Elliott: "Hard Landing" In Store For Economy In 2024
Forward Guidance
The Late Cycle of the Economy
The economy is entering the late cycle phase where there are hints of pessimism in the economic outlook. The macroeconomic cycles take time to play out following tightening measures, with the most interesting developments typically occurring in months 12 to 24. Despite the recent rise in interest rates and other factors like fiscal contractions, the economy is expected to experience significant weakening in the coming months. The prevailing expectations in financial markets still lean towards a softer landing, but the macroeconomic realities suggest otherwise.
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