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Look Beyond the Headlines
Jobless claims have not increased significantly, mirroring trends observed in the 2001-2002 recession, but current continuing claims are notably 15-16% higher than the average of non-pandemic years. Analyzing the stock market's underlying dynamics reveals similar patterns; rather than focusing solely on the S&P 500, it’s crucial to observe sector performance. Utility and consumer staple stocks are thriving, while retail stocks are struggling, with exceptional growth seen only in Walmart and Costco. This indicates a shift away from semiconductors and cyclically sensitive sectors, highlighting the importance of examining the intricacies beneath broader market trends.