The integration of AI in analyzing historical data has transformed the understanding of political violence in Afghanistan. Intelligence officers, in response to increased violence amid troop withdrawals, initiated a project called Raven Century, focusing on historical data spanning from the American occupation to the Soviet invasion. The project aimed to identify non-random patterns linked to incidents of violence, correlating various data sources, such as weather conditions, social media, news reports, and commercial satellite imagery. Notably, rising temperatures were statistically linked to increased support for violence. The team employed open-source intelligence to develop predictive models that forecasted potential attacks and estimated casualties. Remarkably, changes in satellite images indicated that towns became darker just before attacks, while specific areas associated with insurgent activities became brighter, unveiling intricate behavioral patterns ahead of violent incidents.

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