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How Neil Dutta Predicted "No Landing"
The Compound and Friends
Focus on Private Domestic Demand in GDP Analysis
Companies stock up on inventories to reinvest due to unsustainable drawdowns. GDP tends to get revised multiple times, with inventories and trade being the most subject to revision due to lagging source data. For more reliable insight, look at GDP net of inventories, trade, and government, particularly focusing on private domestic demand. This component is a better indicator of where things are going compared to the overall GDP number, which bears tend to dismiss as outdated.
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