Forecasting models often fail due to the reliance on a limited set of variables derived from past data, while the future is influenced by numerous unseen factors. Although historical data may fit the model accurately, the absence of these relevant unnoticed variables leads to incorrect predictions. This highlights the importance of acknowledging the complexity of future events and the inherent limitations in our ability to foresee them.
If the Wright Brothers could have used AI to guide their decision making, it's almost certain they would never have gotten off the ground. That's because, points out Teppo Felin of Utah State University and Oxford, all the evidence said human flight was impossible. So how and why did the Wrights persevere? Felin explains that the human ability to ignore existing data and evidence is not only our Achilles heel, but also one of our superpowers. Topics include the problems inherent in modeling our brains after computers, and the value of not only data-driven prediction, but also belief-driven experimentation.