MacroVoices #443 Viktor Shvets: From Central Banks To Assets Classes To Geopolitics & More
Macro Voices
Excess Capital Redefines Economic Dynamics
Inflationary trends post-2023 are largely anomalies driven by statistical and methodological factors, indicating a shift in the underlying inflationary landscape. Central banks may struggle with policy errors, particularly by maintaining interest rates above neutral rates; however, the consequences of these errors are less impactful than before. The global economy is characterized by an unprecedented abundance of surplus capital, roughly estimated between five to eight hundred trillion dollars, significantly outpacing nominal GDP. This surplus, being five to ten times greater than GDP, complicates price dynamics as excess availability of capital alters traditional economic behaviors, potentially ameliorating the effects of policy missteps.
