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285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality
Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas
Weighing Risks: The Dilemma of Catastrophic Decisions
The discussion highlights the complexities surrounding high-stakes decision-making in dire circumstances, emphasizing the moral dilemma of taking significant risks for potential greater goods. It contrasts historical justifications for extreme actions in war, where governments made decisions under public consent due to threats like the Holocaust and the possibility of adversaries developing nuclear capabilities. This raises questions about personal responsibility and authority when it comes to modern existential risks, particularly actions taken by individuals without societal endorsement. The conversation also introduces the concept of P-Doom, the probability of human actions leading to total destruction, urging a nuanced understanding of risk assessment and the varying interpretations of 'doom' within these discussions.
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