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Forget Rate Cuts, The Fed Will Raise Rates Again In 2024 | Danny Dayan
On The Margin
Analyzing Long-End Supply and Rate Hikes
The supply factor plays a crucial role in the long end of the market. The immense amount of debt being issued has various perspectives on its impact. Some suggest that the supply of debt will elevate the term premium, leading to potential rate hikes. However, this is perceived as a slow-moving process and not as surprising as previous years due to well-telegraphed large supplies. It is anticipated that investors may demand higher premiums during auctions, indirectly pushing rates higher. Alternatively, if market forces alone drive rates up, without the need for rate hikes, the situation might be avoided. Despite skepticism, the dynamic nature of the market and various viewpoints on the matter keep the outcomes unpredictable and the need for rate hikes uncertain.
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