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Analogies and Fallacies in Defining Surprising Outcomes
Defining a surprising outcome depends on defining the relevant outcome ahead of time. If an event occurs without a predetermined outcome of interest, even if it is unlikely, it may not be considered surprising. The analogy of a firing squad, where one draws a target around the bullet hole after shooting, illustrates this concept. Similarly, the story of Richard Feynman noticing a rare license plate serves as an example that without predetermining the outcome, the occurrence, no matter how unlikely, may not be surprising.