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Nate Silver on Risk-takers, Politicians, and Poker Players
Conversations with Tyler
Prediction: A Double-Edged Sword
Predictions can carry significant weight, especially when they are time-sensitive, like expected successes in competitive arenas such as math Olympiads. While AI excels at predicting outcomes in structured environments, like spam response rates, less structured domains pose challenges for both machines and humans. Despite ongoing interest in prediction markets, particularly in areas like politics and sports, these markets have struggled to gain traction in other fields, raising questions about the underlying demand-side issues that hinder their growth.
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