Complexity Investing & Semiconductors (with NZS Capital)
Acquired
00:00
*Challenging portfolio theory. Non-ergotic systems. Power law distribution of investors. *
The insight reveals that the world is not normally distributed, but instead, it is power law distributed, governed by complex adaptive systems. In such systems, predicting the future is impossible, so adaptability becomes crucial. This insight challenges the basis of all risk models, which are built on normal distributions, resulting in flawed risk assessment. The flaws of modern portfolio theory and expected utility theory are exposed through a coin flipping contest example, illustrating the steady positive return observed when many individuals participate over time.
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