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Leopold Aschenbrenner - China/US Super Intelligence Race, 2027 AGI, & The Return of History
Dwarkesh Podcast
Progression of AI Models and Integration Challenges
The development of AI models is expected to reach true AGI in the 10 gigawatt range. By 2025-2026, models may surpass the intelligence of most college graduates but face limitations on complex tasks. By 2027-2028, AI may reach the intelligence level of the smartest experts and transition into more agent-like systems. While intermediate AI systems could offer value in business use cases, integrating them requires significant workflow changes. The slow diffusion of AI systems may lead to the rapid adoption of more powerful, agent-like systems capable of acting as drop-in remote workers, interacting with humans as co-workers through tasks like zoom calls, slack messages, and project collaborations.
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