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A Career on Wall Street

The Compound and Friends

Reacting Correctly matters more than Predicting

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Investing should be approached with the understanding that market reactions and economic outcomes are inherently unpredictable. Focusing on predictions can lead to misguided strategies, particularly in light of market dynamics influenced by algorithms, quantitative traders, and passive management. The shift away from active portfolio management means new market flows are essential for robust growth, but without fresh capital, the market remains driven by automated systems that show little concern for political events or volatility. Instead of attempting to forecast outcomes based on external events, a more prudent strategy involves being prepared to react appropriately to market movements, such as raising cash reserves to take advantage of potential dislocations. Emphasizing proactive reaction over the uncertainty of prediction is crucial in navigating the current market landscape.

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